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From the moment Apple unveiled the iPhone X, in that location's been concern over whether demand for the new device would pull sales away from the iPhone 8/8 Plus, and leave Apple scrambling to fill orders with what was initially intended as a halo production. Nosotros saw a like state of affairs with the iPhone 5s and 5c, when Apple launched the budget device expecting to proceeds market share, only to run into a majority of its customers stampede towards the iPhone 5s instead.

This is, on the one hand, a ridiculously good problem to take, and I imagine certain executives at Apple are exultation all the way to the bank. But a lack-of-availability issue could blow upwardly in Apple's face if the company isn't careful. A recent story from DigiTimes implies this may be the case, with an estimated first shipment of Apple iPhone Xs only recently parting Foxconn with a beggarly 46,500 devices between them.

Fifty-fifty with Foxconn reportedly stepping up its production goal from 100,000 to 400,000 per week, there'south only a bit more than two weeks left until the iPhone X launch. Four hundred thousand per week gives Apple tree roughly iv million phones by the terminate of the year. That's not tiny, only it'southward not much compared with Apple's typical quarterly shipments, either. Apple tree's holiday sales (Q1 of the company's financial quarter) have been in the 75 meg range in the terminal few years, and ~50 million for several years before that. Four million phones is basically pocket change, even if the iPhone 10 carries a higher profit margin than the iPhone eight and eight Plus.

Apple-iPhone-iPad-Macs-sales-2016

The worst-example scenario for Apple would be for customers to convert their interest in a high-finish telephone from Apple to Samsung if they can't get an iPhone 10 (less likely), or to simply sit down out the initial blitz altogether. The closer we get to the launch of a new telephone, the more probable people are to sit down back and wait to see what features Apple will introduce with either the iPhone 9 (if it keeps its onetime numbering standard) or the iPhone 11 (if information technology leapfrogs the X). It's actually a smart motion to wait: Why spend $1,000 on an anniversary telephone when the technologies it debuts are likely to come to cheaper devices in less than a year?

Ironically, Apple'southward beginning-mover status is likely to bite it hither. Normally, Apple could try to continue certain features as standard to simply the iPhone 10, in much the same manner that information technology once offered optical image stabilization but on its larger phones. But the larger cell phone market place has always taken sure cues from Apple tree, which is why we encounter headphone jacks vanishing from devices only once Apple took the plunge first (aye, in other ways, Apple tree is playing take hold of-up with the iPhone X, just that'southward orthogonal to the point). Once Apple tree starts talking almost its new Face ID camera or even-smaller bezels, other companies volition first adding those features every bit well. The iPhone X may take made headlines on business relationship of being unique, only if the mobile market has shown united states of america anything, it's that uniqueness doesn't last.

Apple volition bring at least some iPhone X features to the larger iPhone market; the only question is when. It'south somewhat ironic the company's most iconic device since the original iPhone could cause it no shortage of sales issues, especially if production remains depression. Correct now, the Face ID TrueDepth camera is being touted as the problem, though we've also seen slowdowns attributed to the phone'southward OLED screen. Preorders for the device begin October 27. Watch for skyrocketing shipment times–they'll be the surest sign Apple is unable to meet demand from pre-existing supply.